Tuesday, January 15, 2008

Perceptions

They are a powerful thing. Often times they trump reality. Here is a great example. I am from this town called Morristown, in upstate NY. Tiny little town. About 2,500 people. I graduated public high school with 18 classmates. We didn't have a traffic light. I used to live on a small highway across from a gas station and it did a fair amount of business because the next closest gas station was about five miles away. Sometimes when you tried to pull out of my driveway, you had to wait like, oh sometimes as long as a whole minute, before you would be able to pull out onto the road. My parents and other older people would occasionally utter comments like "the traffic has gotten so bad around here," when we had to wait for a few cars to pass by before we could be on our way. I recall this obscure fact as I sat on 405 North bound at approximately 6 o'clock PM. Talk about bad traffic. For miles all you see is tiny headlights inching their way along. All this got me thinking that perceptions are all relative. For my old little dinky town, waiting a minute or so just to pull out of your driveway really was bad traffic - to us. But in reality, it was fine. It's Seattle traffic that stinks.

Perceptions are very prevalent in sports as well. Not to beat a dead horse but I still can't quite wrap my mind around the vast differences of opinions when it comes to certain players and their qualifications for the Hall of Fame. I read an article like this, and to me its crystal clear, that Jim Rice just isn't a Hall of Fame player. He's just not - at least yet. He's a virtual lock to make it next year, and many, many, many sports writers passionately campaign that yes, he IS a Hall of Fame player. How can these two camps,those for and against Rice, look at the same player's career, and apparently see two very different things? Perceptions. A co-worker of mine signed one of my previous post with something along the lines of "I saw Jim Rice break a bat on a check swing, that's a HOF'er to me." He admitted he was half kidding to me, and this may seem silly, but I can't help but think that may be part of the answer. If enough stories of how scary, intimidating, fearsome, and check swing'in bat break'in strong Jim Rice was inundate the public consciousness, I think the perception that Jim Rice was a Hall of Fame player really starts to ring true with some people. I just wish the writers entrusted to be the gate keepers for something as sacred as the Baseball Hall of Fame would use a little more due diligence.

Let me get this out of the way, I LOVE Derek Jeter. Fantastic ballplayer, a legitimate future Hall of Fame player. But I get sick of the label Mr. Clutch (and for that matter, Mr. November). You can't seem to get through a broadcast of a Yankees game in October without hearing some broadcaster gushing over Jeter like an adolescent with a high school crush. You will hear about how much he "knows how to win" and how much he "steps up" his game in the playoffs. You've heard this yes? I don't think any one would argue with that perception. The reality? Jeter's career regular season batting line looks like this(BA/OBP/Slug);
.317/.388/.462. He has 495 at bats in the post season and that batting line looks like this:309/.377/.469.He's the same guy on a Tuesday night game in June against the Devil Rays, than he is the bottom of the ninth of game 7 of the World Series. Hey just saying ................

Same thing this weekend, watching the NFL playoffs with Tom Brady. I don't know how many times I heard "He knows how to win." Last I checked Tom Brady has been a starter in the NFL for six seasons before this year. His team won the Superbowl in half of them with Brady awarded the Superbowl MVP twice. Impressive no doubt. But what about 2002, 2005 and 2006 when his teams did not win the Superbowl? Did he suffer from some sort of rare amnesia during those seasons and -GASP- actually forget how to win? Of course he didn't. My 15 year old sister knows how to win in the NFL, and she can't even throw a football. YOU OUTSCORE THE OTHER TEAM. I know I am being a bit too literal here, but isn't it enough to just say the guy is a great football player? However the perception remains that Tom Brady "knows how to win", and win or lose this year I don't think that is going away.

The basic point I am trying to make is that perceptions can be really hard to overcome.

But you want reality?

Jim Rice was as good as this guy. Jeter's post season OPS is only 2 points higher than Choke-ROD. And Tom Brady? I guess he actually does know how to win.


6 comments:

Jaybird said...

I believe you just broke the first Yankee Commandment by taking Jeter's name in vain. You should rinse your mouth out with soap.

Don Evans said...

hahaha i know man you mean man, as a fan its easy to recall a few specific plays and think Jeter is Mr. Clutch but the number just don't back it up. Isn't it better to appreciate a player for who he is, and not turn him something into he's not ? and also as a side note you could make the argument that Jeter actually has played maybe a little better in the postseason because he has put up those numbers against better playoff pitching and in colder weather. but thats nit picking.

Craig Calcaterra said...

I think that bridge-too-far thing ("Rice wasn't just good, he was feared! Jeter isn't just good, he's a Clutch God!") is a way for sportswriters to justify their paychecks. All of us amateurs know that Rice and Jeter were/are good. By going that extra mile and making that extra "insight," the sportswriter is pretending that he's observing something that we mere mortals cannot.

Of course by doing so, they often overstate and distort the case to ridiculous proportions.

The difference between a good writer and a bad writer is how they go about avoiding common barstool conventional wisdom. The good ones say something truly interesting (or else express that CW very very well). The bad ones make crap up in order to sound insightful.

Anonymous said...

How much did Stout pay you for a link on your blog?

Anonymous said...

Wouldnt you agree that the best teams make it to the playoffs? Wouldn't you also agree that most teams that make the playoffs have above average pitching? Wouldnt you also agree that there is more pressure to perform in the playoffs (i.e. you lose and you are done; you are in more of a national spotlight)? Doesn't it make sense then that postseason numbers may drop some from the regular season? Lets see a comparison between the average player's regular season vs postseason to see if Jeter truly is "clutch"!

Don Evans said...

C-dubb, Good to see you are reading my blog !!! haha I do agree with your points ( if you read my comment a couple above yours) that in the postseason the pitching is generally better so it is impressive that Jeter's batting line is basically the same as his regular season. I am not saying clutch performances don't exist. I will def give you that a player doing something great like pitching a shutout in a post season could be considered clutch, if you want to think of it in that terms. Where this discussion irks me is where you will often hear fans or the media give Jeter or others that mythical Clutch God label that he raises his game to another level when the chips are on the line. its just not true. There have been many studies, that you could easily look, up that show that consistently performing better in "clutch" situations is not a skill that a player is capable of repeating like other skills such as hitting for power, plate discipline, even running speed. Those things are skills. Performing well in clutch situations is not. Its mostly a product of what we seem to remember the easiest(big time performances stick out in our minds more,we place more significance to them) For ever post season serious where Jeter was a clutch beast, there are also series where he stunk up the joint. Same for all players. its a product of statistical fluctuation, not players having a magical ability to play better than there natural level of ability because the calender says October rather then May.