Wednesday, January 16, 2008
Silva's laughing all the way to the bank ......
I just came across the Tiger's signing Nate Robertson to a three year $21.25 million dollar contract. Lets compare him to the Carlos Silva free agent signing from this off season and see how the deal looks.
Yr 2008/Salary $4.25 million/Age 30
Yr 2009/Salary $7 million/Age 31
Yr 2010/Salary $10 million. Age 32
I couldn't find a detailed breakdown of his yearly salaries, but his new deal will average $12 million over the next 4 years. He will be 32 years old when the contract expires.
Yr 2005/IP 196.7/ERA+ 95/WHIP 1.358/WARP3 3.2
Yr 2006/IP 208.7/ERA+ 119/ WHIP 1.308/WARP3 5.7
Yr 2007/ IP 177.7/ERA+ 96/WHIP 1.475/WARP3 4.2
Yr 2005/IP 188.3/ERA+ 129/WHIP 1.173/WARP3 5.1
Yr 2006/IP 180.3/ERA+ 75/WHIP 1.542/WARP3 1.4
YR 2007/IP 202.0/ERA+ 103/WHIP 1.312/WARP3 5.7
Both guys have been fairly durable and seen quite a bit of fluctuation in their performances. Silva had a real stinker in 2006 but last season he was slightly but clearly was better than Robertson.
2008 Robertson Projections
Bill James - IP 180/ERA 4.40
CHONE - IP 188/ERA 4.40
Marcel - IP 170/ERA 4.50
ZIPS - IP 186/ERA 4.45
2008 Silva Projections
Bill James - IP 199/ ERA 4.61
CHONE - IP 193/ ERA 4.48
Marcel - IP 177/ ERA 4.68
ZIPS - IP 190/ 4.83
I feel I must quickly mention park factor. I was thinking that Comerica Park would be a much friendly place for pitchers but when I looked at the park factor it slightly favored hitters with a factor of 1.051 last season. On the other hand the Metrodome was the 3rd friendliest pitchers park with a factor of .867(Silva's new home, Safeco Field, was still a pitchers park at .948 but not nearly as friendly). The Metrodome was slightly friendlier to pitchers 2006 as well, .963 to .980 respectively. However in 2005 Comerica helped pitchers more, .959 to 1.019 for the Metrodome. Not quite sure what to make of these numbers but I did learn that Comerica doesn't help pitchers nearly as much as I thought it did, at least according to these stats.
I must admit I am a little dizzy from all these numbers. What does it all mean? Well I am not really sure. The last three years they have been fairly durable but inconsistent. Some of the best projections we have available for next year have them as pretty close as well. The Mariners simply paid too much for what I think Silva is going to give them. I think the Silva deal stinks. I know it is not particularly instructive to compare anything to the least common denominator, but you would have a very tough time arguing Silva is worth an average of 5 million more a year than Robertson. Sure, Robertson is no star, but he will give you innings and be around league average. Not a bad deal for the Tigers, for that's about as much as $7 million per year will get you these days ..........