It seems apparent Scott Rolen will soon be officially removed from the La Russa family Christmas card mailing list. On Saturday night foxsports.com reported the St. Louis Cardinals agreed to send disgruntled third baseman Scott Rolen to the Toronto Blue Jays for their third baseman, Troy Glaus. The deal is pending a physical for both players on Monday. For St. Louis to agree to the deal, Glaus had to accept his 2009 player option, bringing the total remaining value of his contract to 24.5 million over two years. Besides the fact that both these players are former all stars, there is an interesting back story to this trade as well.
Despite the fact Rolen has three years and 33 million left on his contract it became increasingly clear that he was on his way out of St. Louis because of the very public bitter feud between him and Tony La Russa. Also Rolen has a long injury history. He hasn't played more than 142 games since 2003 and only played in 112 last year. Glaus lost significant time due to injuries last season as well, playing only 115 games. He had season ending surgery in September to repair a nerve problem in his left foot. Glaus has also been tied to purchasing HGH in 2003 and 2004. So who comes out ahead in this deal ?
Lets take a look at each players past 3 season's to see if we can find any trends.
Games played
Glaus 2005: 149
Rolen 2005: 56
Glaus 2006: 153
Rolen 2006: 141
Glaus 2007: 115
Rolen 2007: 112
Both players have had trouble staying in the lineup through out their careers including last season. Their health is a huge question mark for both sides in this trade. As of this post the players had yet to take their physicals.
OPS+
Glaus 2005: 126
Rolen 2005: 84
Glaus 2006: 122
Rolen 2006: 126
Glaus 2007: 120
Rolen 2007: 89
Rolen has slumped through injury ridden seasons two of the last three years. I think if he were healthy he would still put up good numbers. He performed well in 2006 and at 32 years old it would be unusual for him to fall completely off the cliff like this. Again health is the wild card here. Also Glaus looks a bit better here when you consider he's played in the much more difficult AL East the last two seasons but Rolen has put up his numbers in AAAA ball (Re: NL Central).
WARP3
Glaus 2005: 5.7
Rolen 2005: 2.7
Glaus 2006: 8.4
Rolen 2006: 10.0
Glaus 2007: 5.8
Rolen 2007: 5.7
Interesting to note that Rolen has virtually the same WARP3 in 2007 despite the fact that Glaus was much better with the bat. This is because of Rolen's big advantage with the glove.
FRAR
Glaus 2005: 2
Rolen 2005: 16
Glaus 2006: 23
Rolen 2006: 33
Glaus 2007: 12
Rolen 2007: 25
Outlook for 2008
Bill James gives a 2008 projection for Rolen of 127 games played and an .842 OPS. For Glaus he predicts 145 games with an .851 OPS. Baseball Think Factory ZIPS projections gives us 134 games played and an .819 OPS for Glaus, while it yields 106 games and an .728 OPS for Rolen. I personally am sort of wary of projections. No one should make the mistake of taking them too literally but I do think they are a useful tool to put some science to what is most likely to happen next year.
I think the Cardinals come out ahead in this deal. I just think that Rolen's balky shoulder is more of a concern than Glaus's foot injury. Rolen power has really been sapped two of the last three years and when he did play last year he looked really bad. When Glaus was able to play he swung the bat pretty well. With the injury uncertainty for both players, having Glaus under contract for two seasons rather than the three years left on Rolen's deal, helps the Cardinals decrease their risk of additional playing time lost. The Cardinals did remarkably well considering they were in a low leveraged position to make a deal. It was very public knowledge that it was in the best interest of the Cardinals and Rolen to part ways. Combine that with Rolen's recent performance it appeared the Cardinals were going to have to sell very low. The Cardinals must be happy they were able to get a player as solid as Troy Glaus in this deal, albeit he has health issues of his own.
EDIT: For another in depth analysis of the trade, check out Travis Nelson at Boy of Summer.
3 comments:
As a Cardinal fan, I think that Glaus is a good addition, but I think the Cards will miss Rolen's Glove. Glaus isn't the best defender, though he will add a bigger pop in the middle of our lineup.
Rolen out of the Cards is great for Pirate fans like myself. Glaus won't do crap now that he is off the juice.
haha too bad the pirates biggest enemy has been their old GM the last few seasons (even though he is gone now right?) but the broader point i was trying to make that from this point forward, their is a lot more uncertainty about what you are going to get out of Rolen I think. I still expect Glaus to be a good but not great player. In their peaks Rolen was definitely a better player. For a while it seemed like he was on a hall of fame path, but he hasn't been THAT guy for quite a while now ...
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